High-profile races that will determine which party controls the Senate for the next two years are extremely tight, according to a new CNN poll, as Maine and Kansas remain close and Democrats extended their leads in Texas and Michigan.
Democrats, who are widely projected to win a majority in the House of Representatives, need to flip four Senate seats from red to blue in order to gain a 51-seat majority, protecting their majority from the Vice Presidential tiebreaker.
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is the only Republican incumbent running in a state that went for Kamala Harris in 2024.
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Collins’ Democratic challenger is Troy Jackson, the former president of the state senate who jumped into the race as a replacement for the previous nominee, scandal-plagued Graham Platner.
The race has no clear frontrunner, according to the CNN poll, though Jackson holds a marginal lead.
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49% of respondents told the outlet’s pollsters they favored Jackson, compared to 45% for Collins. While Jackson is slightly ahead, at least 12.5% of voters say they could still change their minds.
Respondents tied Collins to her party less than any other Republican running for Senate in the nation, with 46% of respondents saying they believe she would choose her constituents over the Republican Party.
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Collins was one of seven Republicans to vote in favor of President Donald Trump’s second impeachment in 2021, and she joined Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, as the only Republicans to vote against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s Senate confirmation in 2025.
With Collins managing to distance herself from Trump, her race has largely become a referendum on her own career. Three-quarters of respondents from either party told CNN pollsters that their choice was motivated more by Collins than Jackson.
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In Michigan, despite from some mainstream Democrats and the state’s Jewish community, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is building a lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich.
Respondents favored El-Sayed at 49% compared to the 42% who favored Rogers, according to the poll. CNN’s previous poll, released in early September, showed El-Sayed with a 47% share compared to Rogers’ 44%, showing the former public health director
