When President arrives in Beijing later this March for his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the official agenda will read like every other U.S.âChina meeting in recent memory: tariffs, trade balances, supply chains, Taiwan.
The real story walking through the door with him will be Iran.
On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched , a sweeping joint campaign targeting Irans military, nuclear and command infrastructure. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes â a seismic blow to a regime that had terrorized the region for nearly five decades. Within days, his son Mojtaba was elevated as successor, a dynastic transfer inside a theocracy that once claimed to reject hereditary rule.
The war grinds on â and its consequences are landing on Beijing harder than Xi Jinping ever planned.
Both Moscow and Beijing are actively helping Iran fight this war. That needs to be said plainly, because the administrations public messaging has been too cautious on this point.
Multiple U.S. officials have confirmed that Russia has been sharing satellite and targeting intelligence with Tehran â including the locations of American warships and aircraft across the Middle East. That information has a cost. Seven U.S. service members have now been killed in . Irans own ISR capability has been largely degraded by our strikes. The precision of the missile and drone attacks that have gotten through owes something to Moscows overhead constellation.
Retired four-star Gen. David Petraeus told Fox News that Russian intelligence support likely explains “some of the accuracy of the missiles and drone strikes.” He called on Trump to push South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey is Grahams Russia sanctions legislation, which has more than 90 senators behind it. Irans own foreign minister did not deny the arrangement, telling NBCs “Meet the Press” that the Iran-Russia military partnership “is still there and will continue.”
An adversary coalition actively helping kill American troops deserves discussion at the table in Beijing.
is less direct, but no less consequential.
For years, U.S. officials have warned that Chinese firms have funneled technology into Irans missile and weapons programs. The Treasury Department has sanctioned Chinese companies repeatedly for supplying missile-related materials to Tehran.
Analysts have also flagged Irans interest in the Chinese CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile â a weapon designed to threaten major naval vessels â which has surfaced in Iranian procurement discussions. Chinese technology already runs through portions of Irans missile infrastructure, from electronics to propellant components.
Denial and innocence are not the same thing.
For all of Beijings public posturing, the Iran war is costing China real money â and Xi knows it.
China built its manufacturing economy on reliable access to cheap energy, including deeply discounted crude from sanctioned states. Iran has been a critical piece of that equation. According to data from Kpler analytics and other tracking firms, China was importing approximately 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian crude in 2025 â roughly 13% of its total seaborne oil imports, with nearly all of it routed through shadowy intermediaries to evade U.S. sanctions.
That flow now runs directly through a war zone. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the worlds seaborne oil passes, sits at the center of the conflict. As of this writing, the strait is effectively closed to tanker traffic. For Beijing, that means rising energy costs, supply chain disruption and the loss of one of its most important discounted suppliers â all at once.
Compounding the pressure on Beijing is Washingtons intensifying crackdown on the “shadow fleet” â the network of obscurely flagged tankers used to move sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude into Chinese refinerie
