Iran still has a range of weapons capable of threatening one of the worlds most critical oil choke points â even after U.S.âIsraeli strikes targeting its military and capabilities.Â
From naval mines and anti-ship missiles to drones and fast attack boats, Iran retains enough asymmetric capability to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz without fully shutting it down.
Roughly a fifth of the worlds oil supply moves through the Strait, and analysts say Iran does not need to block it outright to have a global impact.
Even a limited mix of those capabilities â mines in key shipping lanes, a handful of anti-ship missiles or harassment from fast boats â can be enough to raise risk, slow traffic and drive up energy prices across the globe.Â
Shipping through the strait already has slowed in recent weeks, pushing oil prices higher worldwide and forcing most vessels to avoid the route, with knock-on effects on fuel costs and global supply chains.
The mounting risk to global oil flows also comes as President escalated pressure on Iran to reopen the strait Friday, issuing a on Iranian energy infrastructure if shipping was not restored.
Days later, however, Trump backed off that deadline, pausing potential strikes amid what he described as “productive” discussions â highlighting the uncertainty over how far Washington is willing to go to restore shipping.
“It doesnt take much to disrupt commercial traffic through a constrained maritime choke point,” former U.S. 5th Fleet Commander Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan told Fox News Digital, pointing to recent disruptions in the Red Sea as an example of how even limited capabilities can slow or halt shipping.
For commercial shippers, even a small risk of disaster is too much.Â
“You might just end up getting hit by an Iranian drone. You might end up being hit by Iranian anti-ship cruise missile or you might end getting hit by Iranian kamikaze surface robotic naval system,” Can Kasapoglu, defense analyst at the Hudson Institute conservative think tank, told Fox News Digital. “Maybe it’s only a 5% chance, but that alone causes a spike in insurance rates, crews understandably asking for more money, it’s not a business-friendly environment.”Â
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) smaller, fast-moving vessels are harder to track and can blend into regular maritime traffic, making them difficult to eliminate entirely.Â
“Keeping the Strait 100% threat-free would actually divert CENTCOMs main objective right now,” defense analyst KasapoÄlu told Fox News Digital, pointing to ongoing efforts to target Iranian missiles and drones across the nation.Â
Even a limited remaining capability can still pose a risk, he added, noting that “one single anti-ship missile battery” could be enough to threaten maritime traffic in the region, meaning Iran does not need large stockpiles to sustain disruption.
Irans fast-attack fleet has taken losses in recent U.S. strikes, with U.S. officials saying dozens of boats have been destroyed. But analysts say hundreds of smaller vessels â many capable of carrying missiles or laying mines â likely remain, making them difficult to eliminate entirely.Â
Eliminating the threat entirely would require near-constant surveillance across a vast and crowded waterway â something U.S. forces cannot guarantee at all times.
But the most disruptive tool may be naval mines, which are relatively cheap to deploy but can have an outsized impact on shipping due to the uncertainty they create.
Unlike missiles or drones, which can be tracked and intercepted, mines can sit undetected in the water, with some designed to detonate only after a ship passes over them multiple times. That makes them harder to locate and forces commercial vessels to assume risk even when no attack has occurred.
Iran is believed to possess thousands of naval mines, though only a small number would be needed to disrupt traffic