Beef prices arent easing anytime soon and economists warn the pressure could last for years.
That’s because the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its smallest size in 75 years, after years of drought, rising feed costs and an aging ranching workforce forced producers to scale back.
“The biggest thing has been drought,” Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University, told Fox News Digital.
Years of dry have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, including breeding cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it harder to rebuild.
Drought quickly makes it harder and more expensive for ranchers to raise cattle.
As conditions worsen, hay production falls, feed gets more expensive and herd sizes shrink, according to data from the Kansas City Federal Reserve.
But even when conditions improve, rebuilding the herd takes time.
“The fact of the matter is theres really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” said Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at State University. “Were in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and itll take several years to get out of it.”
Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, said it takes roughly two years to bring cattle to market, and several more years to rebuild herds, leaving little room for short-term relief.
And the supply crunch is only part of the story.
The U.S. beef industry is also highly concentrated, with four major companiesâTyson, JBS, Cargill and National Beefâprocessing about 85% of the nations grain-fed cattle.
Critics argue that level of consolidation gives meatpackers significant influence over prices, while industry groups say the market remains competitive.
Higher prices havent scared off consumers.
According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, the average price of beef climbed from about $8.70 per pound in March 2025 to $10.08 a year later, an increase of roughly 16%.
Even so, demand has held up. In 2025, shoppers spent , buying more than 6.2 billion pounds, according to data from Beef Research, a contractor for the National Cattlemens Beef Association.
Spending jumped about 12% from a year earlier, while the amount of beef sold rose more than 4%âa sign arent just paying more, theyre buying more.
